8 June 2011

Greenhouse gas emissions are going up instead of down despite 20 years of effort, hitting record highs, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.

This and other unpleasant realities form the backdrop to two weeks of climate talks which began yesterday in Bonn, Germany. Delegates from 180 countries have heard that the tsunami-triggered nuclear disaster in March has sidelined Japan's aggressive policies to combat climate change. It also prompted countries like Germany to hasten the decommissioning of nuclear power stations which, regardless of other drawbacks, have nearly zero carbon emissions.

Despite the expansion of renewable energy around the world, the Paris-based IEA's report said energy-related carbon emissions last year topped 30 gigatons, 5 per cent more than the previous record in 2008. With energy investments locked into coal- and oil-fueled infrastructure, that situation will change little over the next decade, it said.

Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, says the energy trend should be "a wake-up call." The figures are "a serious setback" to hopes of limiting the rise in the Earth's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, he said. Any rise beyond that, scientists believe, could lead to catastrophic climate shifts affecting water supplies and global agriculture, setting off more frequent and fierce storms and causing a rise in sea levels that would endanger coastlines.

The June 6-17 discussions in Bonn will prepare for the annual year-end decision-making UN conference, which this year is in Durban, South Africa. Even more than previous conferences, Durban could be the forum for a major showdown between wealthy countries and the developing world.

Poor countries say the wealthy West, whose industries overloaded the atmosphere with carbon dioxide and other climate-changing gases over the last 200 years, is not doing enough to cut future pollution.

A study released on Sunday supports that view. The report, based on an analysis by the Stockholm Environment Institute calculated that China, which has pledged to reduce emissions in relation to economic output by 40-45 per cent, will cut its carbon output twice as much as the United States by 2020.

"It's time for governments from Europe and the US to stand up to the fossil fuel lobbyists," said Tim Gore, a climate analyst for Oxfam, the international aid agency.

Another keynote battle in Bonn will be the fate of the Kyoto Protocol, the 1997 accord whose provisions capping emissions by industrial countries expire in 2012.

Negotiators also must prepare options for the Durban conference on how to raise $100 billion a year for the Green Climate Fund created last December to help countries cope with global warming. One source under discussion is a levy on international aviation and shipping.

Abstracted from a NZ Herald story by Arthur Max, Associated Press. To read the full story, click here.